Nigeria fuel imports fall 54% from $14.58bn to $6.71bn in two years, driven by domestic refining and policy reforms
Nigeria’s spending on refined petroleum product imports has plunged by 54 per cent in two years, falling from $14.58 billion in the first nine months of 2023 to $6.71 billion in the same period of 2025, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Balance of Payments report.
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The decline was gradual, dropping to $11.38 billion in the first nine months of 2024 before the sharp reduction in 2025, reflecting a sustained moderation in fuel importation and a significant easing of foreign exchange outflows linked to petroleum products.
Professor Wumi Iledare, a renowned energy economist, said the drop demonstrates reduced reliance on imported petrol but cautioned that importation has not ended.
He explained that the downstream petroleum market in Nigeria remains anchored on import parity, where the option to import ensures price stability and supply security.
“Dangote Refinery has improved domestic supply and reduced marginal dependence on imports, but the credible threat of imports remains the market anchor,” Iledare said.
“Importation continues as a risk-management tool for stock security, demand surges, logistics disruptions, and refinery operational risks.”
Mr Jeremiah Olatide, Chief Executive Officer of petroleumprice.ng, described the reduction as a transformative shift in Nigeria’s downstream market.
“A 54 per cent reduction in fuel import spending signals increased local production, largely driven by Dangote Petroleum Refinery,” he said.
He noted that the refinery supplies over 50 million litres of petroleum products daily, supporting energy security while complementing residual imports.
Quarterly data from the CBN report show refined fuel imports at $3.26 billion in Q1 2025, $1.80 billion in Q2, and $1.65 billion in Q3, confirming a steady moderation throughout the year.
Despite the drop in fuel imports, Nigeria’s total import bill rose to $10.30 billion in Q3 2025 due to a surge in non-oil imports.
The decrease in fuel import spending coincides with structural reforms in the sector, the removal of petrol subsidies in 2023, stricter foreign exchange management, and the scaling up of domestic refineries, all of which have contributed to moderating import volumes.
Analysts say Nigeria’s journey to full energy self-sufficiency remains incomplete, as consistent domestic refinery operations are necessary to meet national demand fully.
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Nonetheless, the reduction in import spending underscores the growing impact of local refining and regulatory reforms in reshaping the nation’s downstream petroleum sector.
