Dangote refinery crude shortfall of 79.53m barrels disrupts operations, costing $5.4bn and highlighting challenges in Nigeria’s local refining sector
The ambitious partnership between Dangote Petroleum Refinery and NNPC Limited is under pressure as the refinery faces a crude oil shortfall of approximately 79.53 million barrels between October 2025 and mid-March 2026.
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Data obtained by The PUNCH from a senior refinery official shows that the plant, which requires around 19.77 million barrels monthly to run at full capacity, received significantly lower volumes during the period.
Deliveries ranged from 4.30 million barrels in December 2025 to 6.45 million in November, far below monthly needs.
The shortfall represents roughly 73 per cent of the refinery’s requirements, translating to an estimated $5.4bn in crude value lost, based on average Bonny Light crude prices of $67.94 per barrel.
otal crude delivered in the five-and-a-half-month period amounted to 29.21 million barrels, valued at about $1.98bn, against the required 108.74 million barrels.
The deficit has raised concerns about domestic refining and fuel security. The Dangote refinery stated that upstream producers have not met obligations under the Petroleum Industry Act, forcing reliance on imported crude purchased at international prices.
“While we receive about five cargoes a month from NNPC, we require 13 cargoes to support domestic sales,” the refinery said.
NNPC Limited, however, confirmed that it is intensifying efforts to maintain crude supply to Dangote and other local refineries.
Managing Director Hubb Stokman emphasised the company’s commitment as “supplier of last resort” to ensure uninterrupted availability of petroleum products nationwide.
The shortfall comes amid global oil market volatility, driven by the Iran-US conflict, and continued reliance on Nigeria’s domestic refining sector to meet petroleum demand.
Experts note that the country exported roughly 306 million barrels between January and October 2025, leaving insufficient volumes for domestic processors.
Local refiners, including modular plants like OPAC, have reported operating far below capacity due to feedstock scarcity.
Industry stakeholders warn that without adequate crude supply, fuel prices could rise further, potentially surpassing N2,000 per litre.
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The Dangote refinery crude shortfall highlights structural challenges in Nigeria’s energy sector, underscoring the need for strategic supply solutions to support domestic refining, stabilise fuel availability, and reduce import dependence.
