Nigeria plans to slash petrol imports in 2026 as Dangote and modular refineries boost output, reducing dependence on foreign fuel
Nigeria’s domestic refineries are preparing to significantly cut petrol imports in 2026, driven by rising production from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and modular plants across the country.
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Industry experts say the nation already has sufficient refining capacity to meet local demand, provided crude oil supply issues and regulatory bottlenecks are addressed.
A steady crude supply could allow domestic refineries to dominate the petrol market and reduce reliance on imported fuel.
Imports Falling as Local Output Rises
Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) shows that in 2025, imported petrol still accounted for 62.5% of national consumption, while domestic refineries supplied 37.5%. However, volumes of imported fuel have already begun to decline.
From November to December 2025, imports fell from 52.1 million litres per day to 42.2 million litres per day.
Meanwhile, Dangote’s output increased from 19.5 million litres to 32 million litres daily, and night-time loading has pushed deliveries above 50 million litres per day.
CORAN, the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria, says underperformance at local refineries is mainly due to unreliable crude supply, not technical capacity.
Many modular refineries operate at below 10% of capacity or shut down intermittently due to feedstock shortages.
2026: A Turning Point
If the government improves crude allocation, supports refinery financing, and enhances production monitoring, domestically refined petrol could surpass imports next year.
This would reduce foreign exchange pressure, improve energy security, and stabilise fuel supply nationwide.
As local refining power rises, fuel importers are expected to see declining relevance and shrinking profit margins.
Already, depot operators have cut wholesale petrol prices to around ₦702 per litre in Lagos, Calabar, and other major markets, reflecting intensified competition in the downstream sector.
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Nigeria’s peak daily petrol demand is estimated at 54 million litres, leaving limited space for imports if domestic production is fully optimised.
