Nigeria 2026 economic outlook shows stability and business confidence, but PwC warns gains remain fragile amid fiscal and market risks

Nigeria’s economic outlook for 2026 reflects cautious optimism, with early signs of stability and renewed business confidence, but experts warn the gains are fragile and exposed to oil market volatility, foreign exchange pressures and fiscal risks.

Also read: Nigerian CEOs optimistic as economy set to improve in 2026

The assessment emerged from the PwC and BusinessDay Executive Roundtable on Nigeria’s 2026 Budget and Economic Outlook held in Lagos.

Participants acknowledged progress in macroeconomic stability while highlighting structural, fiscal and geopolitical risks that could quickly reverse the gains.

Sam Ado, Regional Senior Partner at PwC West Africa, said CEOs now operate with “two lenses”: a microscope for immediate threats such as geopolitics and cyber risks, and a telescope for long-term opportunities driven by technology, artificial intelligence and innovation.

Applying this perspective to Nigeria, Ado highlighted easing inflation at 14.45 per cent, a strengthened naira at roughly N1,436/$, and foreign exchange reserves above $45 billion, reflecting disciplined monetary policy.

He cautioned, however, that “stability is not victory. It is only a platform on which sustainable growth must be built.”

PwC’s 29th Global CEO Survey shows growing business confidence, with 90 per cent of Nigerian CEOs expecting economic improvement in 2026, up from 64 per cent last year.

About 56 per cent are very confident about revenue growth, well above the global average.

Despite the optimism, risks remain.

Ado noted that debt servicing is projected to consume roughly 45 per cent of federal revenue and the fiscal deficit stands at approximately N24 trillion.

He identified four priorities for businesses in 2026: strategic reinvention; technology, data and AI; cybersecurity and trust; and sustainability and peace.

Frank Aigbogun, Publisher of BusinessDay, stressed that private sector leadership is vital for long-term national development, noting that Nigeria can fund only a fraction of its infrastructure needs and emphasising the importance of tax compliance and civic engagement.

Olusegun Zaccheaus, PwC Partner and Chief Economist, warned that security challenges remain a key downside risk, particularly ahead of national elections.

He said monetary stability is expected to continue, but interest rates are unlikely to fall sharply.

Sectoral performance will remain uneven, with services and oil and gas expected to outperform manufacturing and import-dependent sectors.

Zaccheaus further cautioned that Nigeria’s economy remains vulnerable to oil production shocks, FX disruptions, and global trade tensions.

Any major disruption to oil output or prices could undermine budget assumptions and foreign exchange availability.

Kenneth Erikume, PwC Partner and Tax Reporting & Strategy Leader, noted Nigeria’s persistent challenge of expenditure exceeding revenue.

With public debt estimated at N152 trillion, he said borrowing will continue in 2026, and revenue mobilisation through tax administration efficiency and technology is now critical.

Also read: Nigeria economy shows strong recovery signals for 2026

The roundtable painted a picture of cautious optimism: Nigeria is on a path to stability, but careful management of fiscal, structural, and geopolitical risks will be essential to sustain growth and translate macroeconomic improvements into tangible benefits for households and businesses.