Nigeria refinery utilisation falls to 61.58% despite 1.125m bpd capacity, NMDPRA says, citing crude shortages and technical constraints

Nigeria’s midstream and downstream petroleum sector continues to face bleak performance indicators as Nigeria refinery utilisation remains significantly below expectations, despite an installed national capacity of 1.125 million barrels per day.

Also read: Dangote refinery delivers major boost to Nigeria’s economy

This is according to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority’s October 2025 Fact Sheet released on Friday.

Between the first and third quarters of 2025, the country recorded only 61.58 per cent utilisation across its refining system.

The regulator attributed the depressed figures to ongoing technical issues, persistent crude supply shortages and repeated downtime at government owned refineries.

Data from the document showed that just four refineries — Dangote, Aradel, Edo and Waltersmith — are currently operational, offering a combined functional capacity of 467,000 barrels per day.

The 650,000bpd Dangote Refinery remains the single largest asset but continues to run below potential.

The NMDPRA reported that the $20bn plant processed 449,000bpd in October, even as the company targets a long-term expansion to 1.4 million barrels per day.

The report reaffirmed that Nigeria’s conventional refineries, including the Port Harcourt complex, Warri Refinery and Kaduna Refinery, remain in various stages of rehabilitation.

Their combined installed capacities amount to 445,000 barrels per day, underscoring the large chunk of unused national infrastructure.

In the modular segment, active plants include Waltersmith’s 5,000bpd unit, Duport’s 2,500bpd facility, Edo’s 1,000bpd operation, OPAC’s 10,000bpd plant and Aradel’s 11,000bpd modular unit.

Despite issuing 47 Licences to Establish since 2000 and 31 Licences to Construct representing more than 1.2 million barrels per day in planned capacity, only three refineries are presently under active construction: Waltersmith Train 2, AIPCC and Azikel.

The widening gulf between refining ambition and output is further compounded by ongoing crude supply difficulties.

Officials at the Dangote Refinery have consistently warned of inadequate local crude availability, forcing the plant to source feedstock from the United States.

Modular refiners have expressed similar frustrations, calling on the Federal Government to enforce the domestic crude supply obligation contained in the Petroleum Industry Act.

Eche Idoko, National Publicity Secretary of the Crude Oil Refinery-Owners Association of Nigeria, said the inability of refiners to secure consistent feedstock remains a major barrier to completing projects or ramping up operations.

He noted that most investors cannot progress past the final investment decision stage without guaranteed crude.

At a recent CORAN summit in Lagos, the association’s Vice-Chairman, Dolapo Okulaja, said the gap between production figures and crude allocations has left many refiners operating far below capacity.

She argued that although the PIA promotes domestic supply, the practical reality contradicts the law, making it difficult for operators to repay financing and expand output.

CORAN President, Momoh Oyarekhua, added that conflicting clauses in the PIA — particularly the simultaneous existence of the domestic obligation and the willing buyer, willing seller principle — have complicated supply arrangements, limiting the effectiveness of the law.

Also read: Dangote Refinery safety warning targets leaking tankers

With Nigeria still heavily dependent on imported petroleum products, the NMDPRA is expected to intensify regulatory oversight as industry stakeholders push for a more reliable supply chain capable of easing pressure on the downstream market and strengthening local refining.