Nigeria power supply remains erratic despite rising budgets, grid collapses, and low DisCo energy offtake frustrate consumers nationwide

Electricity supply in Nigeria continues to frustrate residents, despite significant fiscal allocations to the power sector over the last three years.

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After brief improvements in 2025, particularly in the second quarter, outages have returned, leaving households and businesses without reliable power.

Electricity Distribution Companies (DisCos) attribute the interruptions to national grid collapses, low generation, gas shortages, and maintenance by the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), alongside vandalism and aging infrastructure.

Sources within some DisCos, who spoke on condition of anonymity, highlighted upstream generation deficits and localised challenges as key causes of the instability.

The National Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) reported that in Q3 2025, over 60 per cent of installed generation capacity remained unavailable for dispatch to the national grid.

The average Plant Availability Factor (PAF) for 28 grid-connected plants stood at just 39.86 per cent, reflecting only minimal improvement from the previous quarter.

While Ikeja Power Plant (Unit 1) achieved a near-optimal PAF of 99.24 per cent, plants such as Sapele Steam (Unit 1) and Alaoji Power (Unit 1) recorded extremely low availability, with Alaoji failing to dispatch any power during the quarter.

Hydropower stations Dadin-Kowa, Zungeru, and Okpai showed significant improvements, but other plants, including Ihovbor (Unit 2) and Geregu (Units 1 and 2), saw declines.

DisCo performance has also hindered electricity delivery.

Average energy offtake dropped by 7.10 per cent in Q3 2025 to 3,328.33 megawatt-hours per hour, despite contracted capacity being largely available.

Only Benin and Port Harcourt DisCos met the 95 per cent offtake threshold required under NERC’s Performance Monitoring Framework, with Kaduna DisCo recording the lowest at 75.23 per cent.

Experts attribute the shortfall to weak infrastructure, seasonal demand changes, and deliberate supply constraints to minimise losses.

Persistent network outages, particularly during the rainy season, further limit the ability to deliver electricity to consumers.

Despite fiscal allocations of N239.5 billion in 2023, N344.097 billion in 2024, and N2.1 trillion in 2025, including targeted funding for the Power Sector Recovery Programme, special interventions, and the Presidential Power Initiative Transmission Project, systemic challenges remain unresolved.

Minister of Power Adebayo Adelabu assured that 2026 would bring renewed focus on stabilising the grid, yet the combination of generation shortfalls, low plant availability, and poor DisCo performance continues to undermine the sector.

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Nigeria’s installed capacity exceeds 13,000 megawatts, but effective supply remains far below demand, reinforcing reliance on self-generation and increasing energy costs for consumers nationwide.